Bill Gates on the Future of Energy and Sustatinability

The following interview with Bill Gates occured on February 11, 2011 at the Wired Business Conference.
The following interview with Bill Gates occured on February 11, 2011 at the Wired Business Conference.
NASA’s GISS Surface Temperature Analysis graph shown earlier (from 1800 to 2010) shows that temperature anomalies since 1980 have all been positive; i.e. it has been constantly hotter than normal.
As the same data shows, the hottest years have all been since 1998:
Global Top 10 Warmest Years (Jan-Dec) | Anomaly °C | Anomaly °F |
---|---|---|
Source: Annual State of the Climate Global Analysis, National Climatic Data Center, NOAA, December 2010 |
||
2010 | 0.62 | 1.12 |
2005 | 0.62 | 1.12 |
1998 | 0.60 | 1.08 |
2003 | 0.58 | 1.04 |
2002 | 0.58 | 1.04 |
2009 | 0.56 | 1.01 |
2006 | 0.56 | 1.01 |
2007 | 0.55 | 0.99 |
2004 | 0.54 | 0.97 |
2001 | 0.52 | 0.94 |
This graph, based on the comparison of atmospheric samples contained in ice cores and more recent direct measurements, provides evidence that atmospheric CO2 has increased since the Industrial Revolution:
(Source: NOAA) via: Climate Change: How do we know? NASA, accessed October 27, 2009
The above covers hundreds of thousands of years and shows how atmospheric CO2 levels have dramatically increased in recent years. If we “zoom” in on just the past 250 years, we see the following:
Global CO2 emissions, 1751–2007, Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC), August 2010,DOI:10.3334/CDIAC/00001_V2010
NASA’s Goddard Institute of Space Studies (GISS) tracks atmospheric global temperature climate trends. As environmental engineer, D Kelly O’Day, writes on ProcessingTrends.com explains: “To facilitate assessments of long term trends, climatologists compare the mean for a base period with the annual mean. Differences between the annual mean and baseline mean are called anomalies. GISS uses the 1951 - 1980 period for their baseline period. They use the difference between the annual mean and the baseline mean to determine the global temperature anomaly for the year.”
O’Day produced a chart showing global temperature anomalies between 1800 and 2006 using data from NASA. I updated the chart he provided to include recently updated data up to 2010:
Sources: GISS Surface Temperature Analysis, NASA, accessed January 30, 2011; Global temperature, 1800-2006, ProcessTrends.com, accessed October 27, 2009
In the 1880 - 1935 period, the temperature anomaly was consistently negative. In contrast, the since 1980 the anomaly has been consistently positive. The 1917 temperature anomaly (-0.47oC) was the lowest year on record. Since 1917, global temperature has warmed, with the most recent years showing the highest anomalies of +0.6 oC in the past 120 years.
Suppose the unthinkable happened, and terrorists struck New York or another big city with an atom bomb. What should people there do? The government has a surprising new message: Do not flee. Get inside any stable building and don’t come out till officials say it’s safe.
Dr. Irwin Redlener of the National Center for Disaster Preparedness says new insights are not reaching the public.
Readers shared their thoughts on this article.
The advice is based on recent scientific analyses showing that a nuclear attack is much more survivable if you immediately shield yourself from the lethal radiation that follows a blast, a simple tactic seen as saving hundreds of thousands of lives. Even staying in a car, the studies show, would reduce casualties by more than 50 percent; hunkering down in a basement would be better by far.
But a problem for the Obama administration is how to spread the word without seeming alarmist about a subject that few politicians care to consider, let alone discuss. So officials are proceeding gingerly in a campaign to educate the public.
“We have to get past the mental block that says it’s too terrible to think about,” W. Craig Fugate, administrator of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, said in an interview. “We have to be ready to deal with it” and help people learn how to “best protect themselves.”
Officials say they are moving aggressively to conduct drills, prepare communication guides and raise awareness among emergency planners of how to educate the public.
Over the years, Washington has sought to prevent nuclear terrorism and limit its harm, mainly by governmental means. It has spent tens of billions of dollars on everything from intelligence and securing nuclear materials to equipping local authorities with radiation detectors.
The new wave is citizen preparedness. For people who survive the initial blast, the main advice is to fight the impulse to run and instead seek shelter from lethal radioactivity. Even a few hours of protection, officials say, can greatly increase survival rates.
Administration officials argue that the cold war created an unrealistic sense of fatalism about a terrorist nuclear attack. “It’s more survivable than most people think,” said an official deeply involved in the planning, who spoke on the condition of anonymity. “The key is avoiding nuclear fallout.”
The administration is making that argument with state and local authorities and has started to do so with the general public as well. Its Citizen Corps Web site says a nuclear detonation is “potentially survivable for thousands, especially with adequate shelter and education.” A color illustration shows which kinds of buildings and rooms offer the best protection from radiation.
In June, the administration released to emergency officials around the nation an unclassified planning guide 130 pages long on how to respond to a nuclear attack. It stressed citizen education, before any attack.
Without that knowledge, the guide added, “people will be more likely to follow the natural instinct to run from danger, potentially exposing themselves to fatal doses of radiation.”
Specialists outside of Washington are divided on the initiative. One group says the administration is overreacting to an atomic threat that is all but nonexistent.
Peter Bergen, a fellow at the New America Foundation and New York University’s Center on Law and Security, recently argued that the odds of any terrorist group obtaining a nuclear weapon are “near zero for the foreseeable future.”
But another school says that the potential consequences are so high that the administration is, if anything, being too timid.
“There’s no penetration of the message coming out of the federal government,” said Irwin Redlener, a doctor and director of the National Center for Disaster Preparedness at Columbia University. “It’s deeply frustrating that we seem unable to bridge the gap between the new insights and using them to inform public policy.”
White House officials say they are aware of the issue’s political delicacy but are nonetheless moving ahead briskly.
The administration has sought “to enhance national resilience — to withstand disruption, adapt to change and rapidly recover,” said Brian Kamoie, senior director for preparedness policy at the National Security Council. He added, “We’re working hard to involve individuals in the effort so they become part of the team in terms of emergency management.”
A nuclear blast produces a blinding flash, burning heat and crushing wind. The fireball and mushroom cloud carry radioactive particles upward, and the wind sends them near and far.
The government initially knew little about radioactive fallout. But in the 1950s, as the cold war intensified, scientists monitoring test explosions learned that the tiny particles throbbed with fission products — fragments of split atoms, many highly radioactive and potentially lethal.
But after a burst of interest in fallout shelters, the public and even the government grew increasingly skeptical about civil defense as nuclear arsenals grew to hold thousands of warheads.
In late 2001, a month after the Sept. 11 attacks, the director of central intelligence told President George W. Bush of a secret warning that Al Qaeda had hidden an atom bomb in New York City. The report turned out to be false. But atomic jitters soared.
“History will judge harshly those who saw this coming danger but failed to act,” Mr. Bush said in late 2002.
In dozens of programs, his administration focused on prevention but also dealt with disaster response and the acquisition of items like radiation detectors.
“Public education is key,” Daniel J. Kaniewski, a security expert at George Washington University, said in an interview. “But it’s easier for communities to buy equipment — and look for tech solutions — because there’s Homeland Security money and no shortage of contractors to supply the silver bullet.”
After Hurricane Katrina in 2005 revealed the poor state of disaster planning, public and private officials began to question national preparedness for atomic strikes. Some noted conflicting federal advice on whether survivors should seek shelter or try to evacuate.
In 2007, Congress appropriated $5.5 million for studies on atomic disaster planning, noting that “cities have little guidance available to them.”
The Department of Homeland Security financed a multiagency modeling effort led by the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in California. The scientists looked at Washington, New York, Chicago, Los Angeles and other big cities, using computers to simulate details of the urban landscape and terrorist bombs.
The results were revealing. For instance, the scientists found that a bomb’s flash would blind many drivers, causing accidents and complicating evacuation.
The big surprise was how taking shelter for as little as several hours made a huge difference in survival rates.
“This has been a game changer,” Brooke Buddemeier, a Livermore health physicist, told a Los Angeles conference. He showed a slide labeled “How Many Lives Can Sheltering Save?”
If people in Los Angeles a mile or more from ground zero of an attack took no shelter, Mr. Buddemeier said, there would be 285,000 casualties from fallout in that region.
Taking shelter in a place with minimal protection, like a car, would cut that figure to 125,000 deaths or injuries, he said. A shallow basement would further reduce it to 45,000 casualties. And the core of a big office building or an underground garage would provide the best shelter of all.
“We’d have no significant exposures,” Mr. Buddemeier told the conference, and thus virtually no casualties from fallout.
On Jan. 16, 2009 — four days before Mr. Bush left office — the White House issued a 92-page handbook lauding “pre-event preparedness.” But it was silent on the delicate issue of how to inform the public.
Soon after Mr. Obama arrived at the White House, he embarked a global campaign to fight atomic terrorism and sped up domestic planning for disaster response. A senior official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, said the new administration began a revision of the Bush administration’s handbook to address the issue of public communication.
“We started working on it immediately,” the official said. “It was recognized as a key part of our response.”
The agenda hit a speed bump. Las Vegas was to star in the nation’s first live exercise meant to simulate a terrorist attack with an atom bomb, the test involving about 10,000 emergency responders. But casinos and businesses protested, as did Senator Harry Reid of Nevada. He told the federal authorities that it would scare away tourists.
Late last year, the administration backed down.
“Politics overtook preparedness,” said Mr. Kaniewski of George Washington University.
When the administration came out with its revised planning guide in June, it noted that “no significant federal response” after an attack would be likely for one to three days.
The document said that planners had an obligation to help the public “make effective decisions” and that messages for predisaster campaigns might be tailored for schools, businesses and even water bills.
“The most lives,” the handbook said, “will be saved in the first 60 minutes through sheltering in place.”
By WILLIAM J. BROAD for the New York Times
With the ‘Smart from the Start’ initiative, offshore wind is ‘open for business’ and ready to harvest 1,000 gigawatts.
One presidential administration late, U.S. offshore wind got its go-ahead when Secretary Salazar officially launched the federal Smart from the Start initiative, which is designed to streamline approvals and move U.S. offshore projects into construction and production by 2015-2016.
The Energy Policy Act of 2005 established federal jurisdiction over offshore energy on the outer continental shelf (OCS) and called for rules and regulations to be established within 270 days of President George W. Bush signing the measure.
More than four years later, President Obama -- on Earth Day 2009 -- ordered that regulations be issued. A week later, they were adopted.
Based on its streamlining of the federal lands approval process for solar power plant development in the Southwest, the Department of the Interior (DOI) Smart from the Start initiative for offshore wind streamlines the regulatory process for OCS leases off the Atlantic Coast.
“It was a long time coming,” said Jim Lanard, President of the Offshore Wind Development Coalition. In predesignating Wind Energy Areas (WEAs), Interior’s Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, Regulation and Enforcement (BOEMRE) could “save developers in the permitting process up to two years,” Lanard said. The WEAs are intended to eliminate conflicts with uses such as shipping channels, Department of Defense protected areas, Federal Aviation Administered radar zones, commercial fishing waters and recreational waterfronts, Lanard explained.
“They have a timeline,” he added. “They have 60 days to identify these Wind Energy Areas and then six months or so to get the federal and state agencies to weigh in on what the constraints might be for those areas. And there could be an environmental assessment process at the end of that, leading up to an offering of leases.”
Making new three-mile-by-three-mile lease areas available by late 2011 or early 2012 moves proposed offshore wind projects quickly into position to complete all regulatory hurdles within about four and a half years and to begin project construction by late 2015 or 2016, Lanard said. “Hopefully, the permitting process is still a work in progress,” he added, “and maybe we can cut that back a little more.”
In addition to the streamlined identification of new offshore sites, Smart from the Start provides for the “fast-tracking” of four already-granted offshore exploration sites and for the aggressive development, “on a parallel track,” of transmission lines.
Identifying the WEAs is expected to make the siting and building of needed transmission systems such as the Google-backed Atlantic Wind Connection much easier. “The department will consider new offshore transmission backbone as another part of energy delivery systems,” Lanard said, “and it won’t slow down other initiatives” by first-stage developers who will need to build their own transmission, but “if the Wind Energy Areas are similar to or compatible with what the offshore wind backbone is looking for, the department could find some useful synergies.”
Though presently an incipient and therefore more costly source of electricity generation than onshore winds, offshore winds, especially off the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic seaboards, are stronger, steadier and nearer to large population centers that already pay higher prices for electricity.
A 2008 study by the Department of Energy (DOE) found that to achieve the entirely feasible objective of providing twenty percent of the nation’s power by 2030, the U.S. wind energy industry would have to obtain 54 gigawatts from shallow offshore wind, which represents only a small portion of the 1,000 gigawatts of the wind energy potential DOI estimates is available off the Atlantic seaboard.
Lanard said the Smart from the Start initiative assumes that projects consisting of 100 3.6 megawatt to 5 megawatt turbines, producing 360 to 500 megawatts at a cost of $1.5 billion to $2 billion. Getting from first foundations to full generation is expected to take two to three construction seasons.
The offshore wind industry in Europe has been building utility-scale offshore wind projects since 1991. In the last two years, Chinese developers have begun building ocean projects. “This could really get this industry up and running,” Lanard, an offshore developer himself from 2005 to 2010, said. “The offshore wind industry in the United States is open for business.”
Two small projects in state-regulated Atlantic waters off Rhode Island and New Jersey and one off Cleveland in Lake Erie are racing to become the first U.S. offshore producer. Massachusetts’ Cape Wind has finally cleared its regulatory hurdles and is on track to be the first U.S. offshore wind installation in federal waters. “They’re expecting to get financing early in 2011 and begin construction by the end of the year,” Lanard reported.
As construction in the offshore industry ramps up, there will be new needs for which Lanard said planning is already “well underway.” Developers and state economic directors from Maine to Virginia “are doing major assessments of supply chain capability.” They are also “assessing their ports and infrastructure needs.” Lanard said he thinks “the initial round of vessels for offshore wind are going to be modified jack-up vessels from the Gulf of Mexico. There are a lot of unused assets down there.”
For the workforce that will be necessary to erect and maintain the tens of thousands of turbines to be built off the Atlantic Coast in the next two decades, Lanard said Rhode Island offers a good example of preparations being made. “A grant has been obtained,” he said, “and workers in Rhode Island are going out to Midwestern wind farms and being trained in the air. For the operation and maintenance of wind farms, offshore or onshore, all the work above water is virtually identical.”
Herman K. Trabish : November 24, 2010
The Treasury Grant program preserved renewables through 2009 and 2010—but will it be there in 2011?
Vitally important to renewables developers, the Treasury Grant program was included in the 2009 Recovery Act to make financing available despite the scarcity of bank credit due to the economic crisis. Referred to as 1603, its section number, the grant allows developers to accept cash from the Treasury Department for projects started before December 31, 2010, in exchange for tax credits useless during the downturn.
The economy is, however, healing more slowly than anticipated. Lenders and investors remain reluctant. Developers of utility scale solar, wind, geothermal and biofuels projects need an extension of the 1603 provision.
Renewable Energy Project Finance in the U.S., a report from Mintz, Levin and GTM Research, reported that through October 6, 2010, $5.4 billion was paid in cash grants to renewables projects, supporting over $18 billion in total investment. If the cash grant is not extended, $4.1 billion in 2011 and $6.6 billion in 2012 will have to come from tax equity, debt, or direct investment, capital sources that are improving but not expected to return to pre-financial crisis levels for “several years.”
Some claim that extending federal support such as 1603 to renewables puts U.S. money into foreign renewable industries. U.S. renewables advocates argue that federal investment has already grown significant domestic capacity, but that only more federal investment can grow domestic markets and achieve the economies of scale necessary to make the U.S. independent of imported energy.
According to Washington lobbyist Keith Martin of the powerful D.C. law firm Chadbourne & Parke, there are two proposals presently in Congress that could save the 1603 program. One is an extension of the program with “just a date change,” Martin said. The other is a renaming of the program. “It looks like a tax refund program,” Martin said, “but in practice it would work a lot like the current Treasury cash grant program.”
Both proposals will be under consideration in both houses of Congress in the lame duck session that opens November 29 with Democrats continuing to hold significant but not omnipotent majorities. Both proposals could also be considered in 2011 by the new and different 112th Congress in which Democrats will retain a vulnerable majority in the Senate and Republicans will take control in the House.
On a panel moderated by Martin at the recent American Wind Energy Association Fall Symposium, David Skillman, Legislative Assistant Counsel to Congressman Earl Blumenauer (D-Oregon) said House Democrats are fighting for an extension of 1603, because “it’s our last, best chance to really do something right for the renewables community.”
Skillman said a deal is “more likely than not.” He foresaw action coming late in the lame duck session, just before Christmas, as part of larger legislative action to extend a broad array of tax programs and benefits, a “tax extenders’ package.”
“I see no reason why we wouldn’t change the date on some of these programs,” Skillman said, because there is “substantial appetite to make something happen, both from a Democratic perspective and a Republican perspective.” Getting the tax extension legislation done, he said, will allow the 112th Congress to “deal with some of the larger ramifications of the November election.”
James Lyons, Republican counsel to the Senate Finance Committee, is not so optimistic. He called extending 1603 “a real iffy proposition,” because “in order to get a deal, it would have to be an agreement from Democrats not to raise taxes.”
Lyon reminded the panel that 1603 “was part of the stimulus bill, which was a highly partisan bill.” Extending it in the lame duck session, Lyons implied, would threaten Republican legislators who saw in November the implications of cooperating with Democrats. “Another practical problem,” he added, “is if you change this to a refundable in the lame duck session, add it on to the Bush tax cuts, there would be a number of other thrusts from other members to have other provisions changed. And it becomes, basically, a mini-energy bill.”
As to the prospects for passing the measure next year, “I would say the odds probably go down for the 1603 grant,” Lyons said, because “a typical conservative Republican has not been in favor of running the spending programs through the tax code” and a refundable income tax credit would also be perceived as “corporate welfare.”
Lyons agreed with Skillman on one point. The 1603 extension is “tied to all of the extenders.” He also raised doubts about President Obama’s commitment to the issue. “A lot probably depends on what guidance the President gives, but so far there hasn’t been a whole lot.”
Ryan Abraham, Democratic professional staff with the Senate Finance Committee, is more hopeful. “I think there’s definitely a middle ground that can be reached.” To define that middle ground, however, Abraham struggled for words. “Grant programs are not tax programs,” he insisted, but to meet Republicans halfway, he acknowledged 1603 is “a temporary provision at a time of economic crisis when we don’t have a stable tax credit market” and not “a permanent provision.” He then added, “it’s been a very effective program” and “it needs to be extended” whether as “a refundable credit or a grant.” He concluded, finally, “I think there has got to be a compromise there.”
Former Wyoming Republican Senator Alan Simpson recently described the only real way to save 1603. “If,” he told Charlie Rose, “you can’t compromise without compromising yourself, you shouldn’t be in Washington, D.C.”
Herman K. Trabish : November 30, 2010